Prioritising Assumptions
Prioritising assumptions involves systematically listing, and ranking uncertainties or beliefs related to a prioritised solution to determine which assumptions are most crucial to validate.
Purpose
Prioritising assumptions lets teams identify the most critical and impactful assumptions that need to be validated first. This helps ensure that resources are allocated efficiently and that the most critical uncertainties are addressed early in the product development process.
Context
Industry Context
There is pressure on teams to move from research and design into delivery. We need to de-risk our solutions as quickly as possibly so that we can start building them. We need to focus on the most impactful assumptions to ensure that we are building the right thing.
ZeroBlockers Context
Teams are accountable for outcomes, not just outputs. This means that the team needs to be both effective (building things customers want) and efficient (building them within the target time period). Being focused on the most impactful assumptions helps to avoid costly failures and ensures that the team is building the right thing.
Methods
| Practice | Description | Benefits | Considerations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Certainty Importance Mapping | Assumptions are evaluated based on their level of certainty and their importance to the feature's success. |
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Other Methods
| Practice | Description | ZeroBlockers Opinion |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Impact Probability Chart | Assumptions are plotted on a chart based on their potential impact and the probability of being true/false. | This is very similar to the Certainty Importance Matrix but by focusing on certainty instead of probability you are tying the assumption to the data that we have instead of opinions. |
| Assumption Mapping | A structured approach to categorise assumptions by their impact and ease of validation. | We should not be influenced by the ease of validation. We should focus on the ones with the biggest potential impact, even if they require more effort to validate. |
| Lean Testing Matrix | Framework for prioritising assumptions based on the effort required to test them and the learning potential. | Again, we should not be influenced by the ease of validation. We should focus on the ones with the biggest potential impact, even if they require more effort to validate. |
| Dependency Chain Analysis | Identifies assumptions based on their dependencies, analysing how assumptions are interconnected and the cascading effects of their potential invalidity. | This is a good way to try to validate the importance of an assumption but it doesn't let us know which ones we have more or less certainty about. |
| Weighted Scoring | Assigns scores to assumptions based on multiple criteria, such as impact and ease of validation, with each criterion given a weight reflecting its importance. | This gives the impression of being more scientific but it is still subjective. |
Anti-patterns
- Validation Overload: Attempting to validate all assumptions simultaneously, leading to resource strain and focus dilution.
- Confirmation Bias: prioritising assumptions for validation based on a desire to confirm existing beliefs rather than objective risk assessment.
- Static Prioritisation: Failing to reassess and reprioritise assumptions as new information emerges and the project context evolves.
- Prioritising based on ease of validation: Focus on the ones with the biggest potential impact, even if they require more effort to validate.
Case Studies
Mastering Prioritization in Product Development
How Zettle improved product development efficiency and innovation through effective prioritization
Zettle (PayPal)
Mastering Assumption Prioritization to Mitigate Product Risks
How Tiqets improved product development outcomes by adopting a structured approach to prioritizing assumptions.
Tiqets
Improving Prioritization to Strengthen Stakeholder Relationships
How Indeed enhanced its product development process and stakeholder relationships through better prioritization.
Indeed
