Certainty-Importance Mapping
Certainty-Importance Mapping is an analytical framework used to evaluate and prioritise assumptions based on their level of certainty and importance. This method involves placing assumptions on a 2x2 matrix where one axis represents the certainty of the assumption being true and the other axis represents the importance of the assumption to the project's success.
Goal
The primary goal of Certainty-Importance Mapping is to help teams identify the "leap-of-faith" assumptions: assumptions that are both critical to the project's success and uncertain. By visualising assumptions on a 2x2 matrix, teams can quickly identify which assumptions need validation first.
Context
A lot of assumptions might have a limited impact on our product. And we might have a lot of data about other assumptions. But the most critical ones are assumptions that are both important and uncertain. These are the ones that we need to focus on first.
Inputs
| Artifact | Description |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | A list of the key assumptions that underpin the features or solutions. |
Outputs
| Artifact | Description | Benefits |
|---|---|---|
| Prioritised Assumption Matrix | A 2x2 matrix categorising assumptions based on their certainty and importance. | Helps focus validation efforts on assumptions that are uncertain yet critical to success. |
Anti-patterns
- Overlooking Leap of Faith Assumptions: Failing to address assumptions that are critical yet uncertain can lead to significant project risks.
- Analysis Paralysis: Spending excessive time in mapping and analysis without moving to validation efforts.
- Siloed Approach: Not involving diverse team perspectives in the mapping process, which can lead to biased or incomplete analysis.