Prioritised Assumption Matrix
The Prioritised Assumption Matrix is a strategic tool used in product development to categorise assumptions based on two axes: Confidence (how certain we are about the assumption being true) and Importance (the significance of the assumption to the project's success). This 2x2 matrix helps teams prioritise which assumptions need validation first.
Purpose
The purpose of the Prioritised Assumption Matrix is to identify the "leap-of-faith" assumptions (high importance and low confidence) that can derail our solutions. These assumptions are then prioritised for validation, ensuring that the team focuses on the most critical and uncertain areas first.
Format
| Axis | Description |
|---|---|
| Confidence (Low to High) | Represents the team's level of certainty about the truth of an assumption. Low confidence assumptions are less certain and require validation. |
| Importance (Low to High) | Indicates how crucial an assumption is to the project's overall success. High importance assumptions have a significant impact. |
Worked Example
Imagine a team developing a new online marketplace app. One assumption might be, "Users are willing to pay a premium for eco-friendly products."
| Quadrant | Assumption Example |
|---|---|
| High Importance, Low Confidence | "Users are willing to pay a premium for eco-friendly products." (This assumption, if true, could significantly impact the app's pricing strategy but requires validation due to low confidence.) |
| High Importance, High Confidence | "Secure payment processing increases buyer trust." (A validated assumption that remains critical to the platform's success.) |
| Low Importance, Low Confidence | "Users prefer dark mode in shopping apps." (While interesting, this assumption is less critical and uncertain.) |
| Low Importance, High Confidence | "Product reviews increase time spent on app." (While this has been validated, it's not as critical to the project's success.) |
Anti-patterns
- Validation Bias: Only focusing on high-confidence assumptions because they seem safer or easier to validate.
- Stasis through Analysis: Becoming paralysed by the process of categorising and reassessing assumptions without taking action to validate them.