Continuous Forecasting
Continuous Forecasting is the ongoing process of predicting future product outcomes and performance metrics, such as costs, timelines, and resource needs, based on current data and trends. This activity involves regularly updating forecasts to reflect changes in the product scope, market conditions, and team performance.
Goal
The primary goal is to provide real-time insights into product trajectory and resource requirements, enabling adjustments to strategy and execution to meet business objectives efficiently.
Context
In a lot of organisations, forecasting happens annually during the budgeting cycle. However, linking a forecast to a budget can lead to bad behaviours - a forecast may be low-balled to make it easier to hit a budget target. Continuous forecasting is a way to avoid this by providing a more accurate and up-to-date view of the future and breaking the link between the forecast and the budget.
Inputs
| Artifact | Description |
|---|---|
| Product Performance Data | Historical and current data on product progress, resource usage, and milestones achieved. |
| Market Insights | Insights from the analysis of the market and the competitive landscape. |
| Stream Team Charter | Data on the team size and cost for each stream. |
Outputs
| Artifact | Description | Benefits |
|---|---|---|
| Continuous Forecasts | Documents providing updated predictions on product costs, timelines, and resource needs. | Enables proactive adjustments to product plans and resource allocation, enhancing product success and alignment with strategic goals. |
Anti-patterns
- Static Planning: Relying on initial forecasts without regular updates, leading to misalignment with current realities.